Scientists Employ Spacecraft Data to Forecast the Sun’s Corona Prior to Total Solar Eclipse

On April 8, 2045, skywatchers across the continental United States will witness a rare celestial event – a total solar eclipse. This will be the first total solar eclipse since 2017 and the last until August 12, 2045. During totality, when the Moon completely covers the Sun, the Sun’s outer atmosphere, known as the corona, becomes visible to the naked eye. Scientists eagerly await these moments to observe and study the corona, as it provides valuable insights into stellar dynamics and solar storms and their impact on Earth.

Months before a total solar eclipse, scientists rely on supercomputers and other models to generate predictions of the corona’s appearance during the event. For the upcoming April 8 eclipse, researchers from Predictive Science used data from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft to forecast the structure of the corona. To ensure accuracy, they also incorporated real-time updates from NASA’s Electra Supercomputer as new data from SDO became available.

The corona is driven by heat and magnetic turbulence, which results in long strands of plasma extending from the Sun. These strands, although invisible to the naked eye, continue far into space, creating a phenomenon called solar wind. Solar wind travels throughout the solar system, influencing planets, moons, asteroids, and other celestial bodies.

When solar wind interacts with a planet’s atmosphere, it triggers a reaction in the form of auroras. This interaction between solar wind and planetary atmospheres is referred to as “space weather,” a term used to describe events ranging from mild to severe. Severe space weather events, such as coronal mass ejections, can disrupt communication systems, impact satellites and astronauts in orbit, and even damage electrical grids on Earth.

Scientists rely on continuous observation of solar activity and research on the Sun to forecast space weather. The corona plays an important role in space weather and solar activity, which is why scientists seize every opportunity, including total solar eclipses, to study it.

“Accurately predicting the path of a coronal mass ejection is similar to predicting a hurricane’s path. Having a more accurate understanding of the corona is important,” said Jon Linker, President of Predictive Science.

While NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory and other solar observatories provide valuable insights into the corona’s inner workings, crucial information about the forces driving its activity remains elusive. Acquiring this information would enhance predictions of the corona’s appearance and behavior, thus improving space weather forecasts.

Measuring the magnetic field accurately in the corona presents a significant challenge for scientists. “That’s one of the things that makes this so challenging,” explained research scientist Emily Mason of Predictive Science.

To develop their model of the corona for April 8, the team of scientists analyzed changes in the Sun’s surface magnetic field. They created an automated process that converted raw data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory into information reflecting how magnetic flux and energy are injected into the corona over time. By incorporating this data into their model, scientists can simulate the evolution of the corona and predict solar eruptions.

“The software pipeline we developed takes magnetic field maps, identifies areas to be energized, and fine-tunes the amount of energy to be added to those areas,” explained Mason.

This automated data pipeline represents a groundbreaking innovation for corona prediction models. Previously, researchers had to rely on static snapshots of the surface magnetic field, unable to consider the ever-changing dynamics of the Sun’s intense magnetic field and coronal activity – a suboptimal approach given the current period of heightened solar activity. Additionally, scientists had to manually determine areas around the Sun requiring energization by analyzing ultraviolet activity in specific regions.

The April 8 eclipse will be the first time this new data pipeline and model are deployed to forecast the corona’s appearance during an eclipse. With total solar eclipses occurring once or twice every one to two years, the scientific team will continuously update their models and data pipelines to maximize accuracy.

“We’ve utilized eclipse predictions in the past to develop novel approaches for our model. I’m thrilled to see how this prediction improves over the next two weeks. It will be a stark contrast from what we were previously capable of,” said Cooper Downs, a research scientist at Predictive Science who led the development of the automated modeling and data pipeline.

“The eclipse provides an incredible opportunity for us to showcase our work and generate curiosity among people. We want to share our excitement with others,” added Mason.

As anticipation builds for the total solar eclipse on April 8, scientists eagerly await the opportunity to witness and study the Sun’s corona. By harnessing the power of advanced models and real-time data, researchers are pushing the boundaries of our understanding of space weather and its impact on our planet and beyond.